Analyst: Android Tablets Will Overtake iPad Next Year

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Tech industry analyst Sameer Singh is predicting that Android tablets will capture a greater share of the market than the iPad by the second or third quarter of next year. That forecast is somewhat surprising given Apple’s dominance of the market to date.

In his Tech-Thoughts blog, Singh explained, “Android tablet shipments have outpaced the iPad’s sequential growth in six out of the last eight quarters (including the Q4 2011 to Q1 2012 drop). The iPad would have to consistently outpace the growth of Android tablets over the next year to hold on to its market leadership position, which is quite unlikely. Therefore, current tablet market share trends are consistent with my prediction of Android tablets overtaking the iPad by mid-2013. However, both platforms should see rapidly rising volumes, as market share gains will be growth driven.”

CNET’s Lance Whitney noted, “Apple’s iPad has remained the king of the tablet market for the past few years but has gradually shed market share to the onslaught of Android devices. For the third quarter of 2010, the iPad enjoyed an 87 percent cut of the market, according to IDC. For this year’s third quarter, that number had fallen to just 50.4 percent.”

Bogdan Petrovan from Android Authority added, “Buoyed by the iPad mini, Apple might get hold of 55% of the market in the important holiday season, estimates Singh, but the Android pursuers are expected to rebound in the next quarter.”

VentureBeat’s John Koetsier observed, “Android’s last dance with majority share was last Christmas season, when Amazon flooded the market with its inexpensive Kindle Fires, causing Android tabs to come within a few million of Apple’s sales numbers. However, we are currently seeing much broader-based growth, according to Singh: more tabs from more vendors at a greater variety of price points, all of which combines to offer more sustainable sales growth.”